Prediction of Miguel Damas vs Lilian Marmousez at Maia Challenger 11-27-25

• How do both players' second serve stats compare? Miguel Damas has a slight disadvantage, winning 42.24% of points on second serves, while Lilian Marmousez edges slightly ahead at 42.69%.
• Regarding return game stats, Miguel Damas shows strength, winning 44.96% of opponent's second serve points, compared to Marmousez’s 42.41%.
• For first serve returns, Damas again leads with 33.58% versus Marmousez’s 25.65%, which could be a deciding factor in their matchup.
• Under pressure, Marmousez has a higher breakpoint saving percentage at 51.83%, slightly better than Damas’s 49.32%.
• Over the past year, Marmousez has a superior match win percentage of 75.34%, compared to Damas’s 67.37%.
• Both players excel on clay with a 62% win rate, but Damas performs worse on I.hard with a 0% win rate, whereas Marmousez manages 39%.
• Who competes better in lower-level tournaments? Marmousez wins 81.63% of Futures/Satellites/ITF $10K matches, surpassing Damas’s 75.00%.
• Considering opponent quality, Damas has faced slightly stronger players with an average rank of 420.42, compared to Marmousez’s 465.27.
• If this match enters a deciding set, Marmousez is more likely to clinch it, with a win rate of 79% versus Damas’s 53% in decisive scenarios.
• Damas converts breakpoints more effectively at 36.89%, while Marmousez manages 30.61%, a critical stat for pivotal match moments.

Editorial Prediction (November 27, 2025, UTC):

In this upcoming match, both players exhibit strengths in different areas. Miguel Damas is impressive in his return game, particularly against second serves, potentially giving him an edge if Marmousez struggles to land his first serves consistently.

Lilian Marmousez, however, demonstrates resilience under pressure, saving breakpoints more frequently, and shows a superior match win rate over the last year, suggesting a higher overall consistency in performance.

The stronger performance of Marmousez in deciding sets and his ability to win at a higher rate in Futures/Satellite tournaments makes him a formidable opponent. While Damas holds an advantage in break point conversion, Marmousez’s slight edge in second serve points and overall match win percentage gradually tilt the prediction in his favor.

Based on these comparisons, Lilian Marmousez is more likely to emerge victorious in this encounter.